Posts Tagged ‘Oscar predictions’

 

2016-oscar-nominations

With nominations announced this morning, its time to see how my predictions fared. This year’s nominees are amazing diverse, and fantastic reminders that Hollywood is still a hotbed of creativity and art.

I’m copy/pasting my prediction lists (in condensed form). Incorrect predictions will be crossed out, and replaced by the correct ones, which have a number in parenthesis indicated where I ranked them on my original prediction list (out of 10). Correct predictions are in bold.

Best Picture

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight   

3) Manchester by the Sea

4) Arrival

5) Hell or High Water

6) Hacksaw Ridge   

7) Hidden Figures   

8) Lion 

9) Fences

A perfect nine for nine! My super-secret algorithm comes through again!

*Note: Anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated for Best Picture. I always pick the maximum because there’s no way of determining how many films will be picked. My 10th pick, 20th Century Women, was not nominated, meaning my top 9 picks were.

 

Best Director

1)  Damien Chazelle – La La Land

2) Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

3) Martin Scorsese – Silence     Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge   (#7)

4) Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

5) Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

 

Best Actor

1) Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

2) Denzel Washington – Fences

3) Ryan Gosling La La Land

4) Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

5) Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

 

Best Actress

1) Emma Stone La La Land

2) Natalie Portman – Jackie

3) Isabelle Huppert – Elle 

4) Amy Adams – Arrival     Ruth Negga – Loving   (#6)  

5) Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

 

Best Supporting Actor

1) Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

2) Dev Patel – Lion

3) Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

4) Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

5) Liam Neeson –  Silence     Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals   (#6)

 

Best Supporting Actress

1) Viola Davis – Fences

2) Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

3) Naomie Harris – Moonlight

4) Nicole Kidman – Lion

5) Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women     Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures   (#6)

 

Best Foreign Language Film

1) Toni Erdmann

2) Land of Mine

3) A Man Called Ove

4) My Life as a Zucchini     The Salesman   (#6)

5) Tanna

 

Best Animated Film

1) Zootopia

2) Kubo and the Two Strings 

3) My Life as a Zucchini

4) The Red Turtle

5) Moana

 

Best Documentary Film

1) O.J.: Made in America

2) 13th

3) Cameraperson     Life, Animated   (#7)

4) I Am Not Your Negro

5) Weiner     Fire at Sea   (#10)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

1) Moonlight  

2) Fences 

3) Arrival

4) Silence     Lion   (#6)

5) Nocturnal Animals     Hidden Figures   (#9)

 

Best Original Screenplay

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) La La Land

3) Hell or High Water

4) Jackie     The Lobster   (#6)

5) The Edge of Seventeen     20th Century Women   (#8)

 

Best Film Editing

1) Moonlight  

2) La La Land

3) Hacksaw Ridge

4) Jackie     Hell or High Water   (#9)

5) Arrival

 

Best Cinematography

1) Moonlight

2) La La Land

3) Arrival

4) Jackie     Lion   (Not ranked)

5) Silence

 

Best Production Design

1) La La Land

2) Jackie     Hail, Caesar!   (Not ranked)

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Arrival

5) Silence     Passengers   (Not ranked)

 

Best Costume Design

1) Jackie

2) La La Land

3) Florence Foster Jenkins

4) Love & Friendship     Allied   (#6)

5) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

 

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

1) Florence Foster Jenkins     Suicide Squad   (#4)

2) Star Trek Beyond

3) A Man Called Ove

 

Best Original Score

1) La La Land

2) Jackie

3) Moonlight 

4) Lion 

5) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story     Passengers   (Not ranked)

 

Best Original Song

1) “City of Stars” La La Land

2) “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

3) “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” – Trolls

4) “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” La La Land

5) “Heathens” – Suicide Squad     “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story   (Not ranked)

 

Best Sound Mixing

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4) Doctor Strange     13 Hours   (Not ranked)

5) Arrival

 

Best Sound Editing

1) Hacksaw Ridge

2) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story     Arrival   (#6)

3) La La Land

4) The Jungle Book     Deepwater Horizon   (#7)

5) Doctor Strange     Sully   (#8)

 

Best Visual Effects

1) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2) The Jungle Book

3) Doctor Strange

4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them     Deepwater Horizon   (#6)

5) Kubo and the Two Strings 

 

Best Short Film

1) Graffiti     Ennemis Intérieurs   (#7)

2) Timecode

3) Bon Voyage     La Femme et le TGV   (#8)

4) The Way of Tea     Silent Nights   (#10)

5) Mindenki (Sing)

 

Best Animated Short Film

1) Piper

2) Pearl

3) Inner Workings     Pear Cider and Cigarettes   (#6)

4) Borrowed Time

5) Blind Vaysha

 

Best Documentary Short Film

1) The White Helmets

2) Extremis

3) Joe’s Violin

4) The Mute’s House     Watani: My Homeland   (#8)

5) 4.1 Miles

With the Academy Awards taking place this Sunday, everyone is making their predictions. Why should you listen to mine? Well, rumor has it that certain folks in Hollywood bring my picks around to Oscar parties and win really great prizes with them. Of course, I never see a dime of these prizes, but who cares? This year could be the year that I do poorly. Things are really close in so many categories that aside from a few locks, there’s a lot up for grabs. That is sure to make this year much more exciting than last year. So, here we go. Tell me if you agree or not. I’ve ranked them in the order of likelihood of winning.

Best Picture 

  1. Boyhood 
  2. Birdman
  3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  4. The Imitation Game
  5. Whiplash
  6. Selma
  7. American Sniper
  8. The Theory of Everything

This is pretty much a two horse race right now. I’ve had Boyhood penciled in as the winner since July of last year and I’m not about to change that now.

Best Director

  1. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
  2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
  3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
  4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
  5. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Gosh this one is hard. Linklater did something amazing with Boyhood. But Birdman was masterful as well and the DGA gave their award to the latter’s helmsman. I’ll go with them.

Best Actor

  1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
  2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
  3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
  4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
  5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

I thought Keaton for a long time, but Redmayne is a little better, plus he plays the same character for a lifetime.

Best Actress

  1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
  2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
  3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
  4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
  5. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

This one is a lock.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
  2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
  3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
  4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
  5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

This one is a lock as well.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
  3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
  4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
  5. Laura Dern (Wild)

Even though I would vote for Emma Stone, Arquette is bringing home the award.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  2. Birdman
  3. Boyhood
  4. Foxcatcher
  5. Nightcrawler

The more I think about it, the more I think this is close to a lock. Budapest was so clever, and so well told. There’s an outside shot for Birdman or Boyhood.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Imitation Game
  2. The Theory of Everything
  3. American Sniper
  4. Whiplash
  5. Inherent Vice

This one is up in the air. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the top four win.

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  2. Big Hero 6
  3. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
  4. The Boxtrolls
  5. Song of the Sea

The Lego Movie. Seriously…I’m still befuddled at the lack of a nomination, which paves the way for a Dragon win.

Best Documentary Film

  1. Citizenfour
  2. Last Days in Vietnam
  3. Finding Vivian Maier
  4. Virunga
  5. The Salt of the Earth

Life Itself was the only film that could have challenged Citizenfour. And it wasn’t nominated.

Best Foreign Film

  1. Ida
  2. Leviathan
  3. Wild Tales
  4. Tangerines
  5. Timbuktu

An outside chance for Leviathan or Wild Tales here.

Best Cinematography

  1. Birdman
  2. Mr. Turner
  3. Unbroken
  4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  5. Ida

Birdman in front, with the rest in a pack.

Best Costume Design

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  2. Into the Woods
  3. Maleficent
  4. Mr. Turner
  5. Inherent Vice

I never saw Into the Woods. A lot of folks were claiming it would get a Best Picture nomination, which was just silly. However, I am surprised that its not getting more love for Costume Design, which should lead to a win for Budapest.

Best Make-up and Hair

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy
  3. Foxcatcher

This one is so, so close. Being a Marvel fan, I want Guardians to win, and really, think about all the characters that had make-up: Gamora, Nebula, Thanos, Ronan, the Broker, the Collector, Howard the Duck (just kidding).

Best Production Design

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  2. Into the Woods
  3. Interstellar
  4. Mr. Turner
  5. The Imitation Game

Should be a lock.

Best Film Editing

  1. Boyhood
  2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  3. The Imitation Game
  4. Whiplash
  5. American Sniper

Should be a lock here as well.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Interstellar
  2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy
  4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
  5. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Another one that is so close. Hugo beat out the last Apes film, so I’ll go with the Nolan bus here.

Best Original Score

  1. The Theory of Everything
  2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  3. Interstellar
  4. Mr. Turner
  5. The Imitation Game

I am hoping for a Budapest win here, but I noticed that no soundtrack Grammy winner has ever won an Oscar. And Theory does have a great score.

Best Original Song

  1. “Glory” (Selma)
  2. “Everything is Awesome” (The Lego Movie)
  3. “Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
  4. “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me)
  5. “Grateful” (Beyond the Lights)

Should be a sure thing.

Best Sound Editing

  1. American Sniper
  2. Birdman
  3. Interstellar
  4. Unbroken
  5. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

As usual, I’m mostly guessing here, although my top two here both sounded amazing.

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Whiplash
  2. Birdman
  3. American Sniper
  4. Interstellar
  5. Unbroken

See above comment. I can see any of the top three winning here.

Best Live Action Short

  1. Boogaloo and Graham
  2. The Phone Call
  3. Parvaneh
  4. Aya
  5. Butter Lamp

No. Flipping. Idea.

Best Animated Short

  1. Feast
  2. The Dam Keeper
  3. A Single Life
  4. The Bigger Picture
  5. Me and My Moulton

Bah. Feast is a really fun film. Probably the winner.

Best Documentary Short

  1. Joanna
  2. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One
  3. Our Curse
  4. The Reaper
  5. White Earth

Once again, no clue. Crisis is the popular pick, but I’m leaning away.

Oscar voting ends this Thursday, but with other award organizations announcing their nominations soon, I’m jumping the gun and releasing mine earlier. Remember, these are just Oscar NOMINATION predictions, not Oscar winner predictions. Read on for part two of This Year in Cinema – The Oscarwatch 2014. I’ve placed stars (*) next to nominees I consider to be locks, and they are listed in order of their likelihood to garner a nomination.

Best Picture 

Boyhood

Side note here – anywhere from five to ten films can be nominated for Best Picture. I always pick ten to cover them all, although this year we may only get nine.

  1. Boyhood(Mark it down now, Boyhood will win Best Picture)
  2. Birdman*
  3. Selma
  4. The Imitation Game
  5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  6. The Theory of Everything
  7. Whiplash
  8. Gone Girl
  9. Nightcrawler
  10. Foxcatcher

On the bubble: UnbrokenWildA Most Violent Year

List of my Best Picture favorites can be found here. I’ll update an awards listing as the major awards are announced.

Best Director

Ben Affleck in Gone Girl

  1. Richard Linklater* (Boyhood)
  2. Alejandro González Iñárritu* (Birdman)
  3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
  4. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
  5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

On the bubble: David Fincher (Gone Girl), Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Best Actor

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Michael Keaton in Birdman

  1. Michael Keaton* (Birdman)
  2. Eddie Redmayne* (The Theory of Everything)
  3. David Oyelowo (Selma)
  4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
  5. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

On the bubble: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Best Actress

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

  1. Julianne Moore* (Still Alice)
  2. Rosamund Pike* (Gone Girl)
  3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
  4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
  5. Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

On the bubble: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash.

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash.

  1. J.K. Simmons* (Whiplash)
  2. Edward Norton* (Birdman)
  3. Ethan Hawke* (Boyhood)
  4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
  5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Best Supporting Actress

Meryl Streep in Into the Woods

Meryl Streep in Into the Woods

  1. Patricia Arquette* (Boyhood)
  2. Emma Stone* (Birdman)
  3. Meryl Streep* (Into the Woods)
  4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
  5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

On the bubble: Laura Dern (Wild)

Best Original Screenplay

vIMLJ7Z-_400x400

  1. Boyhood*
  2. Birdman*
  3. The Grand Budapest Hotel*
  4. Selma
  5. Nightcrawler

On the bubble: FoxcatcherA Most Violent Year

Note (1/10): It was unexpectedly announced this week that Whiplash is considered an Adapted Screenplay. My predictions have changed accordingly.

Best Adapted Screenplay

timthumb

  1. The Imitation Game*
  2. The Theory of Everything*
  3. Gone Girl*
  4. Whiplash
  5. Wild

On the bubble: Unbroken

Best Animated Feature Film

the_lego_movie_2014-wide

  1. The Lego Movie*
  2. Big Hero 6
  3. The Boxtrolls
  4. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  5. The Book of Life

On the bubble: The Tale of the Princess KaguyaSong of the Sea

Best Documentary Film

citizenfour

  1. Citizenfour*
  2. Life Itself*
  3. The Overnighters
  4. Virunga
  5. Finding Vivian Maier

On the bubble: Jodorowsky’s DuneLast Days in Vietnam

Best Foreign Film

_1401553700

  1. Ida*
  2. Force Majeure
  3. Leviathan
  4. Wild Tales
  5. Tangerines

On the bubble: Timbuktu

Best Cinematography

3ZH4ZZ8

  1. Birdman*
  2. Mr. Turner*
  3. Unbroken
  4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  5. Ida

On the bubble: The Imitation GameInterstellar, Gone Girl,

Best Costume Design

BY4EB00CcAAXwIf

  1. Into the Woods*
  2. Maleficent
  3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  4. Mr. Turner
  5. The Imitation Game

Best Make-up and Hair

Steve Carell and Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher

Steve Carell and Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy
  3. The Theory of Everything

On the bubble: MaleficentFoxcatcher

Best Production Design

TGBH-launch-quad-1024x768

  1. The Grand Budapest Hotel*
  2. Into the Woods*
  3. The Imitation Game
  4. Birdman
  5. Inherent Vice

On the bubble: InterstellarMr. Turner

Best Editing

Quad_BC_AW_[26237] Imitation Game, The

  1. Birdman*
  2. Boyhood*
  3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
  4. The Imitation Game
  5. Whiplash

On the bubble: SelmaGone GirlInterstellar

Best Visual Effects

godzilla-trailer-02-1

  1. Interstellar*
  2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*
  3. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy
  5. Godzilla

On the bubble: Captain America – The Winter SoldierMaleficent

Best Original Score

unbroken-movie-review-108d6c03-ae8a-41ce-af7c-608d0db0ec78

  1. Interstellar
  2. Gone Girl
  3. The Theory of Everything
  4. The Imitation Game
  5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

On the bubble: Unbroken

Best Original Song

Im-Not-Gonna-Miss-You-CP

  1. “Glory” (Selma)*
  2. “Everything is Awesome” (The Lego Movie)*
  3. “Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
  4. “I’m Not Gonna Miss You (Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me)
  5. “Mercy Is (Noah)

On the bubble: “Split the Difference” (Boyhood), “Big Eyes” (Big Eyes), “Yellow Flicker Beat” (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1)

Note: After “Glory” and “Everything is Awesome,” this is a crapshoot.

Best Sound Editing

guardians-of-the-galaxy-rocket

  1. Interstellar*
  2. Birdman
  3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  4. Unbroken
  5. American Sniper 

On the bubble: Into the WoodsGuardians of the Galaxy

Best Sound Mixing

american-sniper

  1. Into the Woods*
  2. Interstellar*
  3. Unbroken
  4. Whiplash
  5. American Sniper

Best Live Action Short

  1. Carry On
  2. The Phone Call
  3. Aya 
  4. Boogaloo and Graham
  5. My Father’s Truck

On the bubble: Summer Vacation, Baghdad Messi

Best Animated Short

  1. Feast*
  2. Duet
  3. Coda
  4. The Bigger Picture
  5. Footprints

On the bubble: Symphony #42The Dam Keeper

Feast is the only one I’ve seen, so pretty much anyone’s guess after that.

Best Documentary Short

  1. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One*
  2. The Lion’s Mouth Opens
  3. Joanna
  4. Our Curse
  5. One Child

This year’s Oscar Awards are bound to be exciting. There are very few runaway favorites, meaning we could see a bunch of surprises (or none at all). I believe 2013 wasn’t quite as strong as 2012 was for films, but there were still some really good showings. Here are my predictions for this years awards, highlighted in bold in the lists of nominees.

Note: One edit at 4:52pm CST, I am changing my prediction from The Act of Killing to 20 Feet From Stardom for Best Documentary.

~~BEST PICTURE~~

Chiwetel12YearsInterviewidephoto3

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street

This one is really a three horse race at this point between Slave, Hustle, and Gravity. There’s been some recent concern that some members of the Academy are unwilling to watch Slave, but its really difficult to know the sample size of that group, or if they would still vote for it if they haven’t seen it. I still see it winning, although there is always the danger that it splits votes with Gravity, and American Hustle ends up victorious.

~~BEST DIRECTOR~~

Gravity-Detached

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), David O. Russell (American Hustle), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street), Alexander Payne (Nebraska).

I had the pleasure of sitting in on a Q&A session with Cuaron. Gravity is a visionary film, and he deserves the win here.

~~BEST LEADING ACTOR~~

Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club.

Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club.

Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Ejiofor was the early favorite, but McConaughey has usurped that title, and I have to say I’m in agreement. He delivers a truly wrenching performance. The confidence, the desperation, the loneliness, its all there.

~~BEST LEADING ACTRESS~~

4935_3718

Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County).

A really tough field here, but Blanchett should take it.

~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR~~

Jared Leto at the DBC premiere.

Jared Leto at the DBC premiere.

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club).

Leto in a cakewalk.

~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS~~

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave.

Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave.

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), June Squibb (Nebraska)

This one is so close between Nyong’o and Lawrence. I liked JLaw’s performance better, but Nyong’o’s role was much more difficult. I may change my mind at the last minute, but for now I’m picking Nyong’o.

~~BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY~~

Joaquin Phoenix stars in Her.

Her – Nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

 American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Her, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club

Another tough one. Her has the momentum, and Hustle is more driven by acting than writing.

~~BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY~~

Steve McQuinn directing 12 Years a Slave

Steve McQueen directing 12 Years a Slave.

Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street, Philomena

While Philomena won this category at the BAFTAs, I think that was because Steve Coogan had a hand in it. It could play a spoiler here, but 12 Years a Slave is still looking strong.

~~BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM~~

Disney's Frozen

The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises

Frozen easily

~~BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM~~

the-great-beauty_movieposter_1385062192

The Broken Circle BreakdownThe Missing PictureThe HuntThe Great Beauty, Omar

This is between The Hunt and The Great Beauty. And with the latter having all the award momentum, that’s what I’ll pick.

~~BEST VISUAL EFFECTS~~

Gravity, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

Gravity runs away with this one.

~~BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY~~

Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners, The Grandmaster

When you stop and consider that the entire film was filmed in a very confined space, with greenscreens and other tech, this one stands out even more.

~~BEST FILM EDITING~~

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club

This one is wide open, with the exception of Dallas Buyers Club12 Years a Slave is a longshot, but not completely out, while the remaining three all have a good shot. I’m going to go with Captain Phillips because it just won an Eddie Award for Drama Film. Most years, the film that wins that award goes on to win this Oscar.

~~BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN~~

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her

~~BEST COSTUME DESIGN~~

12 Years a Slave, American HustleThe Great Gatsby, The Grandmaster, The Invisible Woman

~~BEST MAKE-UP/HAIR STYLING~~

Dallas Buyers ClubBad GrandpaThe Lone Ranger

~~BEST ORIGINAL SCORE~~

The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Saving Mr. Banks, Philomena

~~BEST ORIGINAL SONG~~

“Happy” by Pharrell Williams (Despicable Me 2), “Let it Go” by Idina Menzel (Frozen), “The Moon Song” by Karen O. (Her), “Ordinary Love” by U2 (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

~~BEST SOUND MIXING~~

Gravity, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor

~~BEST SOUND EDITING~~

All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor

~~BEST FEATURE LENGTH DOCUMENTARY~~

20 Feet From Stardom, The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square

This is going to be a close race. The consensus seems to be that Act of Killing is the better film, but that Stardom is more fun to watch, also The Square could play spoiler.

~~BEST SHORT SUBJECT DOCUMENTARY~~

Cavedigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number 6, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

~~BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM~~

That Wasn’t Me, Just Before Losing Everything, Helium, Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?, The Voorman Problem

Man, this is almost completely up in the air. It could be any of these really. I may make a last minute change, but right now I’m choosing Helium.

~~BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM~~

Feral, Get a Horse!, Mr. Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom

There’s a very, very, outside chance that  Room on the Broom could upset things, but Get a Horse! looks like the clear winner.