My Oscar Predictions

It appears this blog has gotten completely one dimensional as far as subject matter goes, but perhaps I’ll start steering the boat away from the film world. But first, the obligatory Oscar predictions. You know the drill.

~~BEST PICTURE~~

Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

I’ve been saying it all along. Argo is the picture of the year. I said it way back before it won any awards, and now people are raving about how if it wins at the Oscars it will be because the Academy will vote for it because of its recent success. So why did the first few award voters vote for it? I honestly liked all the movies up for the award this year, but Lincoln is the only other complete movie. I felt the rest had their ups and downs. Argo for the win, because it deserves it, not because people are trying to save face.

~~BEST LEADING ACTOR~~

Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington

Bradley Cooper did a heck of a job in Silver Linings Playbook. But hands down this goes to Lincoln star Daniel Day-Lewis. The only one I didn’t see here is Phoenix.

~~BEST LEADING ACTRESS~~

Nominees: Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis, Naomi Watts

I really didn’t like Chastain that much in Zero Dark Thirty. She did a great job, but I didn’t think the part was that great a performance. I hope Riva gets it, but I think Lawrence will.

~~BEST DIRECTOR~~

Nominees: Amour (Michael Haneke), Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin), Life of Pi (Ang Lee), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell), Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)

Of course Affleck should be on here. I think Tom Hooper should be as well. I have a hard time picking this one, I think Affleck’s absence could drive people away from Spielberg on the “he’s won too many” mentality. Ang Lee did wonders with Life of Pi. Tough call, but give it to Spielberg.

~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR~~

Christoph Waltz, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert De Niro,  Alan Arkin, Tommy Lee Jones

Gosh, all these guys were great (I didn’t catch Hoffman). My favorite performance is a toss up between Waltz and De Niro. I say Waltz takes it, but maybe that’s just because I want him to.

~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS~~

Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Jacki Weaver, Helen Hunt,Amy Adams

Duh.

~~BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY~~

 Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour, Flight

Loved Moonrise, but it will be Django or Amour.

~~BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY~~

Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild

It should be Life of Pi considering how most considered the novel to be unfilmable, but these are all good. It probably will be Argo, which I don’t mind at all. Beasts stands alone as a non-contender.

~~BEST ANIMATED FILM~~

Frankenweenie, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph, Paranorman, Brave

Brave is easily the worst one on here, but it still could win. Wreck-It Ralph should though.

~~BEST FOREIGN FILM~~

Amour, A Royal Affair, Kon-Tiki, No, War Witch

Hint: If only one film in a ‘Best Film’ category is up for Best Picture, it should win the category.

~~BEST VISUAL EFFECTS~~

Life of Pi, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman

Andy Serkis in The Hobbit is almost enough to win this on his performance alone. Almost.

~~BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY~~

Skyfall, Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln

This film takes place in the middle of the Pacific Ocean for most of the time, yet there’s almost always something new going on.

~~BEST FILM EDITING~~

Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

~~BEST COSTUME DESIGN~~

Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman.

~~BEST MAKE-UP/HAIR STYLING~~

Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables

~~BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN~~

Anna Karenina, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln

~~BEST ORIGINAL SCORE~~

Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

~~BEST ORIGINAL SONG~~

“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice, Everybody Needs a Best Friend from Ted, “Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi, “Skyfall” from Skyfall, “Suddenly” from Les Miserables

Adele is virtually a lock to win this one.

~~BEST SOUND MIXING~~

Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

Say what you want about the film, but the vocals were clear and the sound brought you right into the film.

~~BEST SOUND EDITING~~

Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

~~BEST FEATURE LENGTH DOCUMENTARY~~

Five Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man

~~BEST SHORT SUBJECT DOCUMENTARY~~

Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption

~~BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM~~

Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, Henry

~~BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM~~

Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare,’ Paperman

Paperman was attached to Wreck-It Ralph and was the best animated short I’ve ever seen. However, I haven’t seen many.

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EDIT NOTE: At 7:20pm on February 23rd, I made two last minute changes. I now predict that Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Actress instead of Jessica Chastain, and I finally gave in and now say that Brave will win Best Animated Film. I didn’t want to because Wreck-It Ralph deserves it, but I think Brave will win.

Favorite Films of 2012

As I’ve said before, I’m a firm believer that one can differentiate between what you acknowledge as the best things and what you acknowledge as your favorite things. Someone might really like a film with huge flaws (like Twilight). The Dark Knight Rises also falls into this world. There are tons of people out there that list the latest Batman flick as their favorite of the year, and yet, as well as it was made from an atmospheric standpoint, the story just doesn’t hold water, and the Batman here isn’t really Batman, the World’s Greatest Detective. I’ll let you have your favorite film, I will debate you on what films are better made, or more award worthy. You may do the same to me.

My list of the Most Award Worthy Films of 2012 can be found here. Feel free to share yours. My favorite films of 2012 are listed here for your reading pleasure.

#10 – The Innkeepers

Normally, I am not a fan of horror films. There’s not enough story there generally to make me like them. This year was different, with The Innkeepers, Cabin in the Woods, and The Woman in Black. I liked all three, but I have to give it to The Innkeepers by a hair. Genunely creepy and almost entirely set in one location, it makes you think, and wonder what really is going on in the supposedly haunted Yankee Pedlar Inn.

#9 – Chronicle

The first surprise of the year put director Josh Trank on the map. A mesh of “found footage” and super heroes that was well directed and well acted. It came out in the doldrums of February, so for it to still be here says something. One of the best scenes of the year is the three guys movie cars around the parking lot with telekinesis. Funny, emotional, and mysterious with a little bit of breathtaking thrown in for good measure.

#8 – Moonrise Kingdom

This one was on my other list as well. Loved Ed Norton, loved Bruce Willis, even Tilda Swinton, who only shows up a bit at the end, is great. Wes Anderson did a fine job with this one, a genuine work of art.

#7 – Skyfall

This one barely edges Moonrise Kingdom for number seven. What clinched it was the great music (thanks Adele), and great performances by Bardem, Craig, and Dench. I still say Bardem needs to be the next Joker when Batman gets rebooted. My full review is here, that’s right, I’d never seen any previous Bond films when I saw Skyfall.

#6 – Life of Pi

I never got around to reviewing this one, too busy, so I will do a small one here. This is the first time I’ve ever thought the 3D on a live action film was worth it. A surreal experience full of Richard Parker, whales, flying fish, and faith, this is storytelling at its finest, in more ways than one. I read the book, loved the book, so I had to see the film. Loved that too. Great job Ang Lee!

#5 – Wreck-It Ralph

What a blast! As if all the video game nostalgia wasn’t enough, they threw in a great story, gorgeous animation, and even a slick twist at the end. Wonderful voice acting. Once again, my full review.

#4 – Lincoln

Abe Lincoln has always been my favorite actor…I mean president. I honestly couldn’t tell that Daniel Day Lewis was there, he melted so easily into the role. This one will bring home some gold and is a genuine must see film, even though I could have done without some of the swearing.

#3 – Les Miserables

Tom Hooper does it again. A grand musical spectacle that relies on emotion to soar. The whole cast is great, the music is fabulous, and it is all you can do to not stand up and applaud at the finale (cause, you know, they aren’t really there in the theater with you). Full review (paired with Lincoln) here. Also, Samantha Barks, your rendition of “On My Own” was incredible.

#2 – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

The return to Middle Earth was fun and remarkable. Peter Jackson treats us to the depths of Tolkien’s myth delightfully. Sure, some reviewers had no idea what was going on, and that led to some unfavorable reviews, but I can’t wait for the next two. Benedict Cumberbatch as Smaug…wow.

#1 – The Avengers

Was there ever any doubt? I’m a huge comic book fan and this was incredible, invincible, mighty good fun. Tom Hiddleston stole the show as Loki, and gosh, everything was so great. Joss Whedon did a remarkable job and the world responded and made this film the third highest grossing film of all time. Not too shabby. As I said before, it should change the mentality of how movies are made.

Well, that’s it. I admit I missed out on Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Silver Linings Playbook, which probably would have shuffled things up a bit.

Which is your favorite of what’s listed here?

BONUS MATERIAL: The Top 5 “Worth the Price of Admission Alone” Scenes/Moments

5) The Closing Speech – Lincoln

4) Attack of the Monsters – Cabin in the Woods

3) “Puny God,” Hulk Smashes Loki – The Avengers

2) Riddles in the Dark – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

1) I Dreamed a Dream – Les Miserables

Going for Gold – The Top 10 Films of 2012

With Critics Choice, Indy Spirit, and Golden Globe nominations already out there, and the Writers and Producers Guilds releasing theirs tomorrow, the time is right for me to release my own top films list. Throughout the year, I gauge critical and fan reaction to films, crunch a bunch of numbers, and make my predictions as to which films will win the most hardware when the award season heats up. Here is my list, starting with #10, for 2012.

Note: The awards I follow are the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, Independent Spirits, the BAFTAs, and the guild awards (SAG, Producers, Writers, and Directors). As far as my predictions go, this list only covers awards given to films, and not individuals or groups. For example, it accounts for the prediction that Les Miserables will be nominated for Best Picture, but not Anne Hathaway receiving a nomination for Best Supporting Actress (even though I think she will).

#10 – The Master – (Paul Thomas Anderson)

A film that has divided critics, The Master seems to walk the razor’s edge between being intellectual and being boring. Most people that like Anderson’s films liked it though, and audiences somewhat warmed to it later on. On the individual front, look for a few nods for Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor-type award nominations.

#9 – Beasts of the Southern Wild – (Benh Zeitlin)

Quvenzhane Wallis has captivated viewers as the brave Hushpuppy, who has to contend with a missing mother, a sick father, and semi-mythical creatures unleashed by melting polar ice caps. One of the most original films of the year, it will have to battle with films farther up on this list to bring home even Indy awards.

#8 – Moonrise Kingdom – (Wes Anderson)

Wes Anderson’s work isn’t for everybody, but there’s a lot to like here. Bruce Willis, Bill Murray and Edward Norton don’t normally make for a warm tale of family faithfulness and the true meaning of love (and scouting), but here they do. A modern day Tom Sawyer tale that will have grown-ups nostalgic for simpler times and every Boy Scout troop applauding, this is a great film.

#7 – Django Unchained – (Quentin Tarantino)

A usual bloody ordeal from Tarantino that will have to deal with controversy surrounding its depiction of life for Confederate slaves and its use of a certain n-word. DiCaprio will be getting some Oscar love for his villainous portrayal of Calvin Candie.

#6 – Les Misérables – (Tom Hooper)

It is getting to be that every time Tom Hooper directs a film, the cast is brilliant and perfectly suited to their roles. Jackman, Crowe, Hathaway, Barks, Seyfried, Redmayne, Carter, Cohen…wonderful performances. Of course the big debate here is the singing. While too raw for some, others are hailing the film as a masterpiece. I loved it, but I can see where some detractors are coming from. I just happen to disagree with them.

#5 – Life of Pi – (Ang Lee)

This is basically a tie with Les Miz, but the vision required by Ang Lee and company to make this film happen might put it up just a bit. You might think making a movie where the main character has to spend months in the Pacific Ocean with a tiger could be challenging. You’d be right, but they do a banner job here with great 3D and effects.

#4 – Silver Linings Playbook – (David O. Russell)

Jennifer Lawrence should get her due here (not for The Hunger Games), and Robert De Niro and Bradley Cooper as well. Covering mental illness is always a tough thing to do, and this is a well written and performed film that might fly in under the radar and snag some gold before everything is said and done.

#3 – Zero Dark Thirty – (Kathryn Bigelow)

Most people haven’t got the chance to see this yet, but the story of the capture of Osama Bin Laden could surprise, in more ways than one. We’ll see if the buzz can generate box office success in January.  Look for Jessica Chastain to keep picking up Best Actress nominations. Here’s my take on all the torture controversy.

#2 – Lincoln – (Steven Spielberg)

Spielberg’s latest masterpiece is many folks prediction for Best Film. It will be up there, but at times the film gets a little sentimental, which could hurt its chances. People are ready to sit through Les Miz and the Hobbit for almost three hours, but there has been some talk that it ran a bit long for people. I think the length is fine, but I don’t mind my films that way.

#1 – Argo – (Ben Affleck)

Affleck is turning into quite the director, and he should at least get a Best Picture nomination for this one, which some people have written off. It might go without any acting nominations except Alan Arkin’s supporting role, but I think it is a solid contender that could bring in the coveted Best Picture Oscar. We shall see.

I should note that these rankings are based on certain calculations I make throughout the year. Based on these calculations, I rank the films. The number one film, will, according to my calculations, receive the Best Picture Award, and all ten should have a chance at receiving nominations, depending on how many films are chosen for that year.

Honorable Mentions

I’m both a realist and a believer in objective and subjective truth. The films I listed are the films I believe to be the best of 2012 based on the response of viewers and critics. I’m aware my favorite films may not make the list, but I don’t let that get in the way. My five honorable mentions, five solid films which will only be taking home minor awards (if any), are as follows:

1) The Avengers – (Joss Whedon)

2) Skyfall – (Sam Mendes)

3) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – (Peter Jackson)

4) Looper – (Rian Johnson)

5) The Dark Knight Rises – (Christopher Nolan)

Be on the lookout next week for my favorite films list, which may come (or it may not).

Thanks for reading!

Lincoln & Les Mis: Two Great Films

Both decades in the making, both getting rave reviews, and both sure to bring home the gold this awards season, Lincoln and Les Miserables bring the pages of history alive and iconic characters to the big screen, leaving us in applause, tears, laughter, and joy.

Lincoln, the newest Spielberg masterpiece, showcases Daniel Day-Lewis as the beloved president. I had to continually remind myself that Abraham Lincoln himself was not gracing us with his presence on screen. Day-Lewis completely disappears into the role, and in Spielberg’s decision to zoom in on this part of his life, the fight to destroy slavery, we see the touch of genius. We see the torment Lincoln faces on all fronts at once. With the Civil War raging, his son’s eagerness to fight in it, his wife’s mental instability, and the rigors of a recently gained re-election, Abe still has to fight tooth and nail for every vote.

His chief allies (at least in politics), William Seward (David Strathairn), Preston Blair (Hal Holbrook), and Thaddeus Stevens (Tommy Lee Jones), play a dangerous game with the opposition, both from the South and from the pro-slavery representatives in the U.S. House. Victory is gained on both flanks, and Lincoln’s place in history cemented.

The score, acting, writing, and especially the costumes and sets are exquisite. Day-Lewis steals the show, and Jones, Strathairn, and the rest follow suit. This is an all-around success, a certain Best Picture contender come Oscar time.

Les Miserables is surprising similar in effect to Lincoln. Certainly we’re dealing with a musical set in France here, and fictional characters, but the backdrop of revolution is there, as is the promise of Oscar gold.

Anne Hathaway simply steals the show here. Her rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” lingers in the ears and on the tongue. Such a passionate and heartwrenching expression of grief is not seen often on Hollywood screens. Also stealing the show was the love triangle of Amanda Seyfried (Cosette), Eddie Redmayne (Marius), and Samantha Barks (Éponine).

Actually, there wasn’t a weak link in the acting chain. Even Russell Crowe, who has come under fire for his singing, delivered a solid performance, and gets a few vocal moments to shine. Hugh Jackman plays Valjean as if he was made for the role, although at some points his vocals fall a little flat and talky. The tension and intensity in his eyes at every moment are pure Jackman, and pure greatness. I never cry during movies, but I did shed a few tears as he said his final good-byes.

To go without mentioning Helena Bonham Carter and Sacha Baron Cohen would be perhaps a crime as the ones they so often commit as the Thénardiers. Cohen fits in well here, a sly jerk of an innkeeper who sings rowdily well and Carter is her usual stellar self, although the most squeamish part of the film is when she drops a cats tail into a ‘mystery meat’ grinder.

Much has been made of the method of music for Les Mis. Director Tom Hooper did things ‘backwards’ this time around, getting the vocals first, live, on set, and adding the music later. This produces more natural, raw, tones, and allows the vocalists to really get into their renditions. The one exception to this was “Bring Him Home,” one of the most iconic songs, which was delivered by Jackman with a lack of luster. There also were a few times where I was wondering what melody Jackman was trying to sing, as he half sang/half spoke some of his lines, which was distracting on occasion.

But when all is said and done, Les Mis is still stupendous. Worth your time, and worth a look as Best Picture contender. The direction is superb, the acting wonderful, and the emotion and spectacle phenominal. It is highly recommended you see this one in theaters.

Reality Check 2012

I really love this time of year. Christmas is coming up, there are great movies coming out and the awards season is upon us. I went to see Lincoln last night, and I’ll have a review of that coming next week in tandem with the first Hobbit film, which I will be seeing tomorrow. I always wait until the end of the calendar year to make official predictions and Top 10 lists, but in a truly great year for cinema, I feel the need to break the following news to certain people.

Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook, not The Hunger Games.

This happens every year. People think the Oscars, Golden Globes, etc. are all just a popularity contest. And although one shouldn’t deny that the Academy has their favorites, it is important to realize there are no teenagers involved in Oscar balloting. No, Jennifer Lawrence doesn’t deserve any nominations for her outing as Katniss Everdeen. I’d be surprised if The Hunger Games receives any nominations at all. It’s outclassed by plenty of more deserving films, and it can’t stand up to other blockbusters, who routinely snag the “lesser” awards in special effects and art direction. From an artistic standpoint, it hasn’t a chance, and films like The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and Prometheus will bury it in the blockbuster categories. It was a decent outing for Lawrence, but really nothing amazingly special. 

No Major Awards for Bond, Batman, or the Avengers. 

While they did plenty of things right, there’s no way The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, or Skyfall will be taking home major hardware. The Bond flick could procure some nice nominations, as Javier Bardem and Judi Dench have seen already, but nothing in the manner of Best Screenplay or Best Picture. The Avengers, the movie of the year at the box office and the most fun I’ve had in a movie theater ever, isn’t the type of film the Academy likes, although it should get some special effects love. And Batman? Sorry, but your movie just wasn’t that great. I enjoyed it sure, but too many plot holes and stupid death scenes. Plus, I wouldn’t nominate any of the actors, even the supporting ones, because they didn’t have enough to work with. Again, we could see some “minor award,” but  nothing big, and that’s fine.

Argo and Zero Dark Thirty Could be Sneaky

Don’t be surprised if these two sneak up on everything and snag some major hardware. Nominated for five Golden Globes, Ben Affleck’s Argo has flown under the radar since its release, and Zero Dark Thirty is just starting to pick up the pace, and could challenge films like Lincoln and Les Miserables for some key awards, especially in the acting department.

The Special Effects Race will be Tight

The special effects awards could break any which way at this point. Prometheus was mesmerizing, The Avengers was done very well, and Life of Pi has been getting rave reviews in this department. And as disappointing as it was to many viewers, Cloud Atlas has been kicking up some dust as well. A lot of deserving candidates out there now.

That’s all I have for now. Feel free to respond with some input or predictions you have. My Top Ten Films list will come out at the end of this month, and I always like discussing it with folks, so let me know what you think.

P.S. I’m as baffled as you are by the attention given to Salmon Fishing in the Yemen. The book is good though.