Archive for the ‘Oscars and Awards’ Category

 

2016-oscar-nominations

With nominations announced this morning, its time to see how my predictions fared. This year’s nominees are amazing diverse, and fantastic reminders that Hollywood is still a hotbed of creativity and art.

I’m copy/pasting my prediction lists (in condensed form). Incorrect predictions will be crossed out, and replaced by the correct ones, which have a number in parenthesis indicated where I ranked them on my original prediction list (out of 10). Correct predictions are in bold.

Best Picture

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight   

3) Manchester by the Sea

4) Arrival

5) Hell or High Water

6) Hacksaw Ridge   

7) Hidden Figures   

8) Lion 

9) Fences

A perfect nine for nine! My super-secret algorithm comes through again!

*Note: Anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated for Best Picture. I always pick the maximum because there’s no way of determining how many films will be picked. My 10th pick, 20th Century Women, was not nominated, meaning my top 9 picks were.

 

Best Director

1)  Damien Chazelle – La La Land

2) Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

3) Martin Scorsese – Silence     Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge   (#7)

4) Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

5) Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

 

Best Actor

1) Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

2) Denzel Washington – Fences

3) Ryan Gosling La La Land

4) Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

5) Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

 

Best Actress

1) Emma Stone La La Land

2) Natalie Portman – Jackie

3) Isabelle Huppert – Elle 

4) Amy Adams – Arrival     Ruth Negga – Loving   (#6)  

5) Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

 

Best Supporting Actor

1) Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

2) Dev Patel – Lion

3) Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

4) Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

5) Liam Neeson –  Silence     Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals   (#6)

 

Best Supporting Actress

1) Viola Davis – Fences

2) Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

3) Naomie Harris – Moonlight

4) Nicole Kidman – Lion

5) Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women     Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures   (#6)

 

Best Foreign Language Film

1) Toni Erdmann

2) Land of Mine

3) A Man Called Ove

4) My Life as a Zucchini     The Salesman   (#6)

5) Tanna

 

Best Animated Film

1) Zootopia

2) Kubo and the Two Strings 

3) My Life as a Zucchini

4) The Red Turtle

5) Moana

 

Best Documentary Film

1) O.J.: Made in America

2) 13th

3) Cameraperson     Life, Animated   (#7)

4) I Am Not Your Negro

5) Weiner     Fire at Sea   (#10)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

1) Moonlight  

2) Fences 

3) Arrival

4) Silence     Lion   (#6)

5) Nocturnal Animals     Hidden Figures   (#9)

 

Best Original Screenplay

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) La La Land

3) Hell or High Water

4) Jackie     The Lobster   (#6)

5) The Edge of Seventeen     20th Century Women   (#8)

 

Best Film Editing

1) Moonlight  

2) La La Land

3) Hacksaw Ridge

4) Jackie     Hell or High Water   (#9)

5) Arrival

 

Best Cinematography

1) Moonlight

2) La La Land

3) Arrival

4) Jackie     Lion   (Not ranked)

5) Silence

 

Best Production Design

1) La La Land

2) Jackie     Hail, Caesar!   (Not ranked)

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Arrival

5) Silence     Passengers   (Not ranked)

 

Best Costume Design

1) Jackie

2) La La Land

3) Florence Foster Jenkins

4) Love & Friendship     Allied   (#6)

5) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

 

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

1) Florence Foster Jenkins     Suicide Squad   (#4)

2) Star Trek Beyond

3) A Man Called Ove

 

Best Original Score

1) La La Land

2) Jackie

3) Moonlight 

4) Lion 

5) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story     Passengers   (Not ranked)

 

Best Original Song

1) “City of Stars” La La Land

2) “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

3) “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” – Trolls

4) “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” La La Land

5) “Heathens” – Suicide Squad     “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story   (Not ranked)

 

Best Sound Mixing

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4) Doctor Strange     13 Hours   (Not ranked)

5) Arrival

 

Best Sound Editing

1) Hacksaw Ridge

2) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story     Arrival   (#6)

3) La La Land

4) The Jungle Book     Deepwater Horizon   (#7)

5) Doctor Strange     Sully   (#8)

 

Best Visual Effects

1) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2) The Jungle Book

3) Doctor Strange

4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them     Deepwater Horizon   (#6)

5) Kubo and the Two Strings 

 

Best Short Film

1) Graffiti     Ennemis Intérieurs   (#7)

2) Timecode

3) Bon Voyage     La Femme et le TGV   (#8)

4) The Way of Tea     Silent Nights   (#10)

5) Mindenki (Sing)

 

Best Animated Short Film

1) Piper

2) Pearl

3) Inner Workings     Pear Cider and Cigarettes   (#6)

4) Borrowed Time

5) Blind Vaysha

 

Best Documentary Short Film

1) The White Helmets

2) Extremis

3) Joe’s Violin

4) The Mute’s House     Watani: My Homeland   (#8)

5) 4.1 Miles

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Down to the wire this year! Here are my much awaited predictions. I was 100% correct on my Independent Spirit Award predictions yesterday, so here’s hoping these are as good!

Predictions are listed in the order I think they are likely to win. Bold indicates the predicted winner.

Edit: Rather than posting an entire new article about them, here are my results. I was 18 for 24. 18 for 21 not counting those pesky short film categories. I picked the two big upsets of the night correctly: Spotlight for Best Picture, and Mark Rylance for Best Supporting Actor.

Green text means the prediction was correct. Red text with a strikethrough means it was not. The actual winner will be bolded in that case. 

Best Picture 

Spotlight-copy-copy

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Big Short
  4. Room
  5. Brooklyn
  6. The Revenant
  7. The Martian
  8. Mad Max: Fury Road
  9. Bridge of Spies

Wow. What a close race. Spotlight is not the current favorite, but I’ll pick it regardless.

Best Director

An Alternative View Of The Premiere Of 20th Century Fox's "The Revenant"

  1. Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant)
  2. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
  3. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
  4. Adam McKay (The Big Short)
  5. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

Best Actor

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  1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
  2. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
  3. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
  4. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
  5. Matt Damon (The Martian)

Best Actress

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  1. Brie Larson (Room)
  2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
  3. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
  4. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
  5. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Best Supporting Actor

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  1. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
  2. Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
  3. Christian Bale (The Big Short)
  4. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
  5. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

I may regret not going with Stallone, but history is against him. He didn’t get a SAG or BAFTA nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

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  1. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
  2. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful 8)
  4. Rooney Mara (Carol)
  5.  Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. Bridge of Spies
  3. Inside Out
  4. Straight Outta Compton
  5. Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short
  2. Room
  3. The Martian
  4. Brooklyn
  5. Carol

Best Animated Feature Film

inside-out_banner

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Boy and the World
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Film

  1. Amy
  2. The Look of Silence
  3. Cartel Land
  4. Winter on Fire
  5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Foreign Film

  1. Son of Saul
  2. Mustang
  3. Theeb
  4. A War
  5. Embrace of the Serpent

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. Sicario
  4. Carol
  5. The Hateful 8 

Best Costume Design

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. Cinderella
  3. The Danish Girl
  4. The Revenant
  5. Carol

Best Makeup and Hair

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant 
  3. The 100 Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Production Design

Mad-Max-Fury-Road-Title-Card-1024x576

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. Bridge of Spies
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. The Martian

Best Film Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Big Short

Best Visual Effects

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Martian
  5. Ex Machina

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful 8
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Sicario

Best Original Song

  1. “’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
  2. “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)
  3.  “Manta Ray” (Facing Extinction)
  4. “Simple Song 3” (Youth)
  5. “Earned It”

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5.  Sicario

Best Sound Mixing

  1. The Revenant
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Martian
  5. Bridge of Spies

In both sound categories, its so close. Almost a tie between Revenant and Mad Max. I picked one for each to cover my bases.

Best Live Action Short (Total Crapshoot)

  1. Shok
  2. Ave Maria
  3. Everything Will Be Okay 
  4. Day One
  5. Stutterer

Best Animated Short 

  1. World of Tomorrow
  2. Sanjay’s Super Team
  3. Bear Story
  4. Prologue
  5. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

Best Documentary Short  (Total Crapshoot)

  1. Chau, Behind the Lines
  2. Body Team 12
  3. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  4. Last Day of Freedom
  5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Today, Cheryl Boone Isaacs, the President of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AKA the Academy that handles the Oscars), announced radical changes to the process by which Academy members are chosen. The goal of these changes is to make the Academy more racially diverse.

12_Years_A_Slave_39894

Steve McQueen directing 12 Years a Slave.

Of course, these changes were made in response to the #OscarsAllWhite campaign, and the decisions of marquee names such as Will Smith and Spike Lee to boycott this year’s ceremony (hosted by Chris Rock, who is black). It’s actually quite absurd to think the Academy is racist as a whole. Isaacs, whose actions should be applauded, is black. These new policies will allow for a more eclectic group of folks as Academy members, but won’t make much of a difference when it comes to nominating black actors. There’s a perfectly good reason for that, and it’s not that the Academy is racist.

Let’s be perfectly clear here, you need to actually deserve an Oscar nomination to get one. The Oscars are for the BEST of the best. Not the pretty good, or even the great. You don’t get handed an award, or a nomination, just because you’re a minority. You. Have. To. Earn. It. Like Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o, and Steve McQueen did two years ago. Or Selma when it was nominated for Best Picture and won Best Song. Blacks make up about 12.6% of the U.S. population, and since 2000, 10% of acting nominations went to black actors and actresses. That means there’s a negligible difference between nominated actors and the general population. It is likely that film studios could do a better job of giving better roles to minorities, but the Academy votes based on the finished product. The Academy isn’t the problem.

The “problem” is that there simply weren’t any Oscar-worthy contenders from the minority crowd (with one exception, which I’ll get to later). We could sit around and argue all day about which actors did or didn’t deserve nominations based on our own opinions, but opinions are subjective. However, when thousands of differing opinions come together to form a consensus, it is more likely that said consensus aligns with reality.  Take Rotten Tomatoes for example. The Tomatometer measures what percentage of critics thought a movie was good (3+ stars) or not (1 or 2 stars). I’m not the biggest fan of it, but the Tomatometer is a good guideline for if you’ll like a film or not. A viewer is mathematically much more likely to like a film with an 85% Tomatometer than a film with a 15% Tomatometer. We can apply a similar test to actors and actresses by seeing how many different film organizations considered them worthy of their own award nominations. If one actor has been nominated by twenty-six different film or critics associations, and another nominated by three, its a pretty safe bet that the former did a better job than the latter. Here are some specific cases

Alleged Snub: Best Leading Actor – Michael B. Jordan (Creed), and Will Smith (Concussion)

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Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), and Eddie Redmayne (The Dutch Girl), were all nominated.

According to handy-dandy IMDB, their total award nominations are as follows:

  • Cranston: 15
  • Damon: 22
  • DiCaprio: 34
  • Fassbender: 30
  • Redmayne: 16

Now for these two.

  • Jordan: 10
  • Smith: 6

A note of importance is that 3 of Jordan’s nominations came from African American film organizations (Black Reel Awards for example). The same was true of 2 of Smith’s nominations. These organizations almost always exclusively nominate African Americans. In fact, the Black Reel Awards only nominated four actors this year instead of the usual five. The reason being that there was a severe lack of great performances by black actors in 2015.

So, as far as Best Actor is concerned, the consensus on a wide scale is that neither Jordan nor Smith were as good as the rest. The Academy, being made up of a lot of members, merely reflect this consensus.

Alleged Snub: Best Picture – (Straight Outta Compton)

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Straight Outta Compton only received eight Best Picture nominations from film and critics societies. Three of these nominations came from exclusively black awards.

Usually, SOC isn’t really considered a snub. By comparison, The Martian garnered over 25 of these type of nominations. SOC just wasn’t worthy.

Alleged Snub: Best Supporting Actor – Idris Elba (Beasts Of No Nation)

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The actual nominees are as follows, with the number of their non-Oscar nominations overall.

  • Christian Bale (The Big Short): 6
  • Tom Hardy (The Revenant): 11
  • Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight): 13
  • Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies): 30
  • Sylvester Stallone (Creed): 28

By comparison, Elba received 13 nominations. Now, I do agree that this was a snub. I think Elba was more deserving than Bale for sure and maybe Hardy. However, this still isn’t based on the race card.

Beasts of No Nation had quite the journey to the big screen. It is the first ever Netflix feature film, and it was actually only shown in a few theaters around the country. Many theaters actually boycotted the film (unofficially) because it was available on Netflix at the same time as it was in theaters.

It’s likely is that the Academy is slow in warming to Netflix produced films. TV is one thing. TV shows have always been “in the home” first. And most “watch-on-demand” debuts are known for not being very good. Of course, this is a different beast entirely (pun intended), which cost it some recognition.

Agree? Disagree? Leave me a note and tell me.

oscars

To conclude coverage of 2015’s film slate, here are my predictions for Oscar nominations.

Oscar nominations are not announced until the 14th. However, with the Golden Globes this weekend, I’m releasing my predictions now. This is because, in years past, folks at sites like IMDB, Gold Derby, and the now-defunct Rope of Silicon always found themselves changing their picks drastically after the Golden Globes. This happens for two different reasons. The first is that they are eager to jump on bandwagons created by Golden Globe wins, which actually aren’t always that great of a predictor. The second is that they have to stop themselves from looking silly by distancing themselves from stupid picks they previously made which had very little chance of actually being correct.

This isn’t to say that it is somehow not kosher to change picks. Everyone’s free to do so. If I do, they will be noted here. The important part is transparency, to see how accurate things are as time goes by.

Here we go! Bold picks are ones I consider to be locks.

EDIT: The Oscar Nominations have been announced. I picked 75% correctly. Below, you’ll see that my correct predictions are in bold, and my incorrect picks have been crossed out, and replaced by the actual nominees. 

Best Picture 

Spotlight-copy-copy

  1. Spotlight
  2. Room
  3. Brooklyn
  4. Carol
  5. The Revenant
  6. The Martian
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road
  8. The Big Short
  9. Bridge of Spies
  10. Sicario

As I said below, this category can have from 5-10 nominees. Carol and Sicario were not nominated, but all other films were accurately picked.

These past few years, the nomination race has been very fun to watch. This year, there are three films that intrigue me. The first is Mad Max. Usually action films like this get passed over by the Academy. But with nominations by the Golden Globes and Critics Choice circles, I can’t count it out. Not only that, its looking pretty good for a nomination.

Beasts of No Nation is so hard to get a read on thanks to its Netflix-only release. Its as good as the last few films on here, but I think it doesn’t quite make it.

Finally, there’s Creed. I think it can sneak in, but I’m wondering if nostalgia is kicking this one up the ladder a bit. On the bubble perhaps.

Also, remember there doesn’t have to be 10 nominations, so we could see some fall by the wayside.

Best Director

the-martian-movie-trailer-not-science-fiction-its-science

  1. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
  2. Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant)
  3. Ridley Scott (The Martian) Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
  4. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
  5. Todd Haynes (Carol) Adam McKay (The Big Short)

Best Actor

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  1. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
  2. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
  3. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
  4. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
  5. Johnny Depp (Black Mass) Matt Damon (The Martian)

On the bubble: Matt Damon (The Martian)

Best Actress

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  1. Brie Larson (Room)
  2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
  3. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
  4. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
  5. Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

On the bubble: Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Best Supporting Actor

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  1. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
  2. Paul Dano (Love and Mercy) Christian Bale (The Big Short)
  3. Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
  4. Michael Shannon (99 Homes) Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
  5. Idris Elba (Beasts of No NationMark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

On the bubble: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

Best Supporting Actress

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  1. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
  2. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful 8)
  3. Rooney Mara (Carol)
  4. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
  5. Helen Mirren (Trumbo) Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

On the bubble: Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. Bridge of Spies
  3. Inside Out
  4. Sicario  Straight Outta Compton
  5. The Hateful 8 Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Martian
  2. The Big Short
  3. Room
  4. Steve Jobs Carol
  5. Brooklyn

On the bubble: Carol

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. The Peanuts Movie Boy and the World
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur When Marnie Was There

On the bubble: Home

Best Documentary Film

  1. Amy
  2. The Look of Silence
  3. Going Clear Winter on Fire
  4. Listen to Me, Marlon What Happened, Miss Simone?
  5. Cartel Land

Best Foreign Film

  1. Son of Saul
  2. Mustang
  3. Theeb
  4. A War
  5. Embrace of the Serpent

On the bubble: The Fencer

Best Cinematography

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. Sicario
  4. Carol
  5. The Hateful 8 

On the bubble: The MartianBridge of Spies

Best Costume Design

  1. Cinderella
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Brooklyn
  4. Carol
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

On the bubble: Mad Max: Fury RoadThe Assassin

Best Makeup and Hair

  1. Black Mass  The 100 Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  2. The Revenant 
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Production Design

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. Carol The Revenant
  3. Bridge of Spies
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. The Martian

On the bubble: BrooklynCrimson Peak

Best Film Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Spotlight
  5. The Big Short

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Ex Machina
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Walk The Revenant

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful 8
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Inside Out Bridge of Spies
  5. Sicario

Best Original Song

  1. “See You Again” (Furious 7) “Manta Ray” (Facing Extinction)
  2. “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)
  3. “’Til it Happens to You” (Hunting Ground)
  4. “Simple Song 3” (Youth)
  5. “Better When I’m Dancing” (The Peanuts Movie)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. Sicario
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Revenant 

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. The Revenant
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Live Action Short (Total Crapshoot)

  1. Ave Maria
  2. Shok
  3. Everything Will Be Okay 
  4. Winter Light Day One
  5. Stutterer

Best Animated Short  (Total Crapshoot)

  1. World of Tomorrow
  2. If I Was God Bear Story
  3. Sanjay’s Super Team
  4. Carface Bear Story
  5. Prologue

Best Documentary Short  (Total Crapshoot)

  1. Chau, Behind the Lines
  2. My Enemy, My Brother Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  3. Last Day of Freedom
  4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
  5. Body Team 12