Oscar 2017 Picks – How’d We Do?

Posted: January 26, 2018 in Uncategorized
This year I predicted 94 out of 122 nominations correctly. 77%.
Other than a couple surprises, the Oscar nominations went pretty much according to plan. Before looking at the specific categories, here are three things I got right and three I got wrong.

What Was Right?

1) No Wonder Woman

Wonder Woman did not get any nominations. The only surprising thing here is that the fanboy rage has not been simmering as much as initially thought. The most interesting claim is that the film was snubbed in the Visual Effects category when it doesn’t come near the quality of effects in the latest Star Wars, King Kong, Planet of the Apes, Blade Runner, and Guardians of the Galaxy movies.

Wonder Woman was a good movie. Just not Oscar-worthy.

2) Writing and Technical Categories.

Perfectly predicted were both screenplay categories, cinematography, sound editing, visual effects, and production design. More details below.

3) The Post Falls Short.

The Post was a film that was near the top of Oscar favorites in November and December 2016. Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, and Steven Spielberg seemed a magical combo, and many considered the film “Oscar bait” and expected four above-the-line nominees. I never bought the hype. The Academy didn’t really either. The Post got a Best Picture nomination, and Streep a Best Actress one, but there was nothing from Hanks or Spielberg.

I had The Post falling just short in all four categories, and the fact that it only took nominations in two of those shows that Academy votes really don’t get baited into voting by things on paper, but actually judge the finished project.

What Was Wrong?

1) The Big Sick Gets Left in the Cold.

Indy hit The Big Sick didn’t get a Best Picture nomination, nor a Best Supporting Actress nod. It snagged a Best Original Screenplay bid, though this year was pretty thin in that category.

2) Animated Mediocrity.

After Coco, there just weren’t many good Hollywood animated films this year. After properly awarding Loving Vincent and The Breadwinner with nominations, voters chose the average Ferdinand and The Boss Baby to round out the section, ignoring some foreign films like In This Corner of the World.

3) A Couple Snubs.

There aren’t really too many snubs this year (though the dummies at Gold Derby would have you believe there were four in EACH ACTING CATEGORY), but the two big misses were James Franco for Best Actor and The Florida Project for Best Picture. I’m not completely buying that Franco lost out because of allegations of improper conduct, though I’m sure it didn’t help, and The Florida Project was beat out by The Post and Darkest Hour, two films that were a little more standard than a film driven by main characters who are kids.

Here are the official results. Correct picks are bolded. Incorrect picks are lined out and replaced with the actual selection. The numbers by picks I missed indicate their rank if they were considered “on the bubble.”

Best Picture (7 out of 9)

1) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Lady Bird

3) Call Me By Your Name

4) The Florida Project The Post (#13)

5) Dunkirk

6) Get Out

7) The Shape of Water

8) The Big Sick Darkest Hour (N/A)

9) Phantom Thread

Remember that anywhere from five to ten films can be selected. I originally had Phantom Thread picked tenth, since I always pick the maximum amount possible.


Best Director (4/5)

1) Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water

2) Martin McDonaugh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread (N/A)

3) Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

4) Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

5) Jordan Peele – Get Out


Best Actor (4/5)

1) Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

2) Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

3) Daniel Day Lewis – The Phantom Thread

4) James Franco – The Disaster Artist Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (#6)

5) Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out


Best Actress (4/5)

1) Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

3) Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

4) Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

5) Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul Meryl Streep – The Post (#6)


Best Supporting Actor (3/5)

1) Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Willem Defoe – The Florida Project

3) Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

4) Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (#6)

5) Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (#8)


Best Supporting Actress (4/5)

1) Allison Janney – I, Tonya

2) Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

3) Holly Hunter  – The Big Sick  Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water (#6)

4) Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

5) Hong Chau – Downsizing Lesley Manville – The Phantom Thread (#7)


 Best Adapted Screenplay (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Call Me By Your Name

2) The Disaster Artist

3) Mudbound

4) Molly’s Game

5) Logan


Best Original Screenplay (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Lady Bird

3) Get Out

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Big Sick


Best Animated Feature Film (3/5)

1) Coco

2) The Breadwinner

3) Loving Vincent

4) In This Corner of the World Ferdinand (#7)

5) Mary and the Witch’s Flower The Boss Baby (N/A)


Best Documentary Feature Film (2/5)

1) Faces Places

2) Jane Last Men in Aleppo (#6)

3) City of Ghosts Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (N/A)

4) Icarus

5) Long Strange Trip  Strong Island (N/A)


Best Foreign Language Film (3/5)

1) The Square

2) In the Fade On Body and Soul (#6)

3) A Fantastic Woman

4) Loveless

5) Foxtrot The Insult (#7)


Best Cinematography (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Blade Runner 2049

2) Dunkirk

3) The Shape of Water

4) Darkest Hour

5) Mudbound


Best Film Editing (4/5)

1) Dunkirk

2) The Shape of Water

3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

4) Get Out I, Tonya (#6)

5) Baby Driver


Best Sound Editing (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Dunkirk

2) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3) Baby Driver

4) Blade Runner 2049

5) The Shape of Water


Best Sound Mixing (4/5)

1) Dunkirk

2) Baby Driver 

3) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Greatest Showman Blade Runner 2049 (#7)


Best Production Design (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Blade Runner 2049

2) The Shape of Water 

3) Beauty and the Beast

4) Darkest Hour

5) Dunkirk


Best Costume Design (3/5)

1) Phantom Thread

2) Beauty and the Beast

3) The Shape of Water

4) Murder on the Orient Express Darkest Hour (#6)

5) The Greatest Showman Victoria & Abdul (N/A)


Best Make-Up & Hairstyling (2/3)

1) Darkest Hour

2) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 Victoria & Abdul (#5)

3) Wonder


Best Visual Effects (5/5 – Perfect)

1) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2) War for the Planet of the Apes

3) Blade Runner 2049

4) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

5) Kong: Skull Island


Best Original Score (4/5)

1) The Shape of Water

2) Dunkirk

3) Phantom Thread

4) Darkest Hour Star Wars: The Last Jedi (N/A)

5) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Original Song (4/5)

1) “Remember Me” (Coco)

2) “This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

3) “Evermore” (Beauty and the Beast) “The Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name) (#6)

4) “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)

5) “Mighty River” (Mudbound)


Best Live Action Short Film (4/5)

1) Watu Wote: All of Us

2) DeKalb Elementary

3) Lost Face The Eleven O’Clock (#7)

4) The Silent Child

5) My Nephew Emmett


Best Animated Short Film (4/5)

1) Dear Basketball

2) Garden Party

3) Negative Space

4) Lou

5) Fox and the Whale Revolting Rhymes (N/A)


Best Documentary Short Film (2/5)

1) Ten Meter Tower Knife Skills (#7)

2) Edith+Eddie

3) Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

4) Alone Heroine (N/A)

5) 116 Camera Traffic Stop (N/A)



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