Oscar Nomination Predictions – 2017 Edition

Posted: January 21, 2018 in Uncategorized

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Oscar nominations for the year of 2017 will be announced on Tuesday. You’ll be hearing a lot of friendly and not-so-friendly debates leading up to the big day. Who deserves a nomination more? Why does so-and-so have a better chance than the other so-and-so, etc. Keep in mind that many of these arguments will be based on things with no influence. Academy members, it needs to be repeated ad nauseum, do not generally vote for a candidate because he or she is “due for an award.” They generally do not vote for people because they are women, or because they are men, or a certain race, or what month it was released. And that brings me to Wonder Woman.

There are going to be a lot of “outraged” fanboys on Tuesday when neither Patty Jenkins, nor Wonder Woman get any above-the-line nominations. I’m not going to rule out the film for a nomination in things like special effects, production design, music, or sound, but Best Picture? No. Best Director? No. Acting? No. Writing? No.

Listen. Just because Patty Jenkins did a great job with Wonder Woman, everybody loved the movie, and it turned out to be one of the most successful comic book films ever, while simultaneously propelling a female hero into the spotlight, it doesn’t follow that it should earn any big nominations. This isn’t about the box office. This isn’t about breaking glass ceilings. This is about the best of the best. And as good as it was, Wonder Woman isn’t even in the top ten contenders for Best Picture. Comic book fanboys need to realize that a comic book movie being made well is not good enough for status as the top film of the year. Frankly, these people should go see more movies.

That being said, here are my predictions for this years Oscar Nominations. Each category is ranked by how likely I believe a nomination is. Selections in bold are those I consider locks. “The Bubble” includes some films I think could have an outside chance.

Best Picture

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1) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Lady Bird

3) Call Me By Your Name

4) The Florida Project

5) Dunkirk

6) Get Out

7) The Shape of Water

8) The Big Sick

9) The Disaster Artist

10) The Phantom Thread

—Bubble Line—

11) Mudbound

12) I, Tonya

13) The Post

There are quite a few categories this year that are all muddled near the end, with no clear leaders. One through seven should all be in good shape here, and The Big Sick looks like it will stick around. As for nine through thirteen, take your pick of those.

Best Director

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1) Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water

2) Martin McDonaugh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

3) Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

4) Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

5) Jordan Peele – Get Out

—Bubble Line—

6) Steven Spielberg – The Post

7) Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

8) Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World

The top five here are certainly the most deserving.

 

Best Actor

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1) Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

2) Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

3) Daniel Day Lewis – The Phantom Thread

4) James Franco – The Disaster Artist

5) Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

—Bubble Line—

6) Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

7) Tom Hanks – The Post

8) Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger

They should just give the award to Oldman now. Washington or Hanks could easily take Kaluuya’s spot.

 

Best Actress

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1) Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

3) Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

4) Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

5) Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul

—Bubble Line—

6) Meryl Streep – The Post

7) Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game

8) Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Robbie is a pretty confidant choice, Streep is a juggernaut, but Dench’s performance as Victoria is astounding, so hopefully it will be Judi in this scenario.

 

Best Supporting Actor

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1) Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Willem Defoe – The Florida Project

3) Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

4) Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name

5) Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

—Bubble Line—

6) Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7) Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name

8) Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

This one is a bit crazy because both Three Billboards and Call Me have two possible nominees. Since it hardly ever happens that two from the same film are nominated in one category, it looks like Harrelson and Stuhlbarg are out. But the latter could split votes with Hammer and leave Harrelson (who isn’t going to take votes away from Rockwell) or Plummer room.

 

Best Supporting Actress

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1) Allison Janney – I, Tonya

2) Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

3) Holly Hunter  – The Big Sick

4) Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

5) Hong Chau – Downsizing

—Bubble Line—

6) Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

7) Lesley Manville – The Phantom Thread

8) Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour

Four through six here are the ones up for grabs. Blige should get the nomination, so its likely just between Chau and Spencer.

 

 Best Adapted Screenplay

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1) Call Me By Your Name

2) The Disaster Artist

3) Mudbound

4) Molly’s Game

5) Logan

—Bubble Line—

6) Blade Runner 2049

7) Wonder

8) All the Money in the World

This category is quite thin this year. After the first two spots, its really wide open. Its also possible that Wonder Woman could take a spot.

 

Best Original Screenplay

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1) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2) Lady Bird

3) Get Out

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Big Sick

—Bubble Line—

6) The Post 

7) I, Tonya

8) The Phantom Thread

Just as the adapted category is weak this year, the original category is strong. Its too bad that the originals can’t borrow some nominations from the adapted category, as six through eight here could probably beat out four through eight in the adapted section.

 

Best Animated Feature Film

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1) Coco

2) The Breadwinner

3) Loving Vincent

4) In This Corner of the World

5) Mary and the Witch’s Flower

—Bubble Line—

6) The LEGO Batman Movie

7) Ferdinand

8) A Silent Voice

After The LEGO Movie snub, it appears the Academy doesn’t see the quality in those films. This year has been pretty stale for widely released animated films. Coco will run away with this category, and hopefully the lesser known films can come away with nominations instead of FerdinandDespicable Me 3, and Boss Baby.

 

Best Documentary Feature Film

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1) Faces Places

2) Jane

3) City of Ghosts

4) Icarus

5) Long Strange Trip

—Bubble Line—

6) Last Men in Aleppo

7) Unrest

8) Human Flow

Most say Jane is the favorite, but that’s partially due to the familiarity of the subject material. Everyone loves Jane Goodall, after all. Long Strange Trip is my longshot pick here.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

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1) The Square

2) In the Fade

3) A Fantastic Woman

4) Loveless

5) Foxtrot

—Bubble Line—

6) On Body and Soul

7) The Insult

8) The Wound

In the Fade has been in the spotlight more recently, but its certainly not this year’s version of Amour or Son of Saul. It may not even make the cut, and the same can be said of all the films here.

 

Best Cinematography

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1) Blade Runner 2049

2) Dunkirk

3) The Shape of Water

4) Darkest Hour

5) Mudbound

—Bubble Line—

6) Call Me By Your Name

7) Get Out

8) Song to Song

There was some stunning camerawork in 2017, and there’s never a shortage of great choices for nominations. I wouldn’t be angry with any of these films getting chosen.

As we start getting into the more technical awards, we’ll be hearing a lot from Dunkirk.

 

Best Film Editing

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1) Dunkirk

2) The Shape of Water

3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

4) Get Out 

5) Baby Driver

—Bubble Line—

6) I, Tonya

7) Blade Runner 2049

8) The Post

This category isn’t quite as tied in with Best Picture this year. Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name don’t quite match up, and there was some great work from films like Baby Driver and Blade Runner 2049.

 

Best Sound Editing

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1) Dunkirk

2) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3) Baby Driver

4) Blade Runner 2049

5) The Shape of Water

—Bubble Line—

6) War for the Planet of the Apes

7) Wonder Woman

8) Life

Lots of blockbusters here. Big noisy blockbusters…and then The Shape of Water.

 

Best Sound Mixing

1) Dunkirk

2) Baby Driver 

3) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Greatest Showman

—Bubble Line—

6) Wonder Woman

7) Blade Runner 2049

8) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

The Greatest Showman, being a musical, could sneak in here.

 

Best Production Design

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1) Blade Runner 2049

2) The Shape of Water 

3) Beauty and the Beast

4) Darkest Hour

5) Dunkirk

—Bubble Line—

6) Murder on the Orient Express

7) Wonder Woman

8) Downsizing

 

Best Costume Design

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1) Phantom Thread

2) Beauty and the Beast

3) The Shape of Water

4) Murder on the Orient Express

5) The Greatest Showman

—Bubble Line—

6) Darkest Hour

7) I, Tonya

8) Thor: Ragnarok

Well, Phantom Thread is about a dressmaker so it better have good costumes. If costumes being a part of the plot could assist, then perhaps I, Tonya could get a boost, but alas, it is not so.

 

Best Make-Up & Hairstyling

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1) Darkest Hour

2) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

3) Wonder

—Bubble Line—

4) I, Tonya

5) Victoria & Abdul

I, Tonya could knock out either Wonder or Guardians.

 

Best Visual Effects

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1) Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2) War for the Planet of the Apes

3) Blade Runner 2049

4) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

5) Kong: Skull Island

—Bubble Line—

6) Dunkirk

7) The Shape of Water

8) Okja

This is a packed category here. Most folks aren’t picking Guardians or Kong, but the special effects in those films was suberb, and they might just be enough to get them past the tecnical effects of Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

Best Original Score

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1) The Shape of Water

2) Dunkirk

3) Phantom Thread

4) Darkest Hour

5) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

—Bubble Line—

6) The Post

7) Victoria and Abdul

8) Blade Runner 2049

Picking the music categories is always difficult. It isn’t enough to just go by big names, but there’s not really any preceding awards that can help out here. The first four are pretty safe here, but the fifth nominee? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Best Original Song

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1) “Remember Me” (Coco)

2) “This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

3) “Evermore” (Beauty and the Beast)

4) “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)

5) “Mighty River” (Mudbound)

—Bubble Line—

6) “The Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name)

7) “Prayers for this World” (Cries from Syria)

8) “Never Forget” (Murder on the Orient Express)

After “Remember Me” this is wide open. My personal favorite is “Never Forget.”

 

Best Live Action Short Film

1) Watu Wote: All of Us

2) DeKalb Elementary

3) Lost Face

4) The Silent Child

5) My Nephew Emmett

—Bubble Line—

6) Facing Mecca

7) The Eleven O’Clock

As you know, the short film categories are generally all crap shoots.

 

Best Animated Short Film

1) Dear Basketball

2) Garden Party

3) Negative Space

4) Lou

5) Fox and the Whale

—Bubble Line—

6) Lost Property Office

7) Cradle

 

Best Documentary Short Film

1) Ten Meter Tower

2) Edith+Eddie

3) Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

4) Alone

5) 116 Camera

—Bubble Line—

6) Ram Dass, Going Home

7) Knife Skills

 

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